Just Can't Help It

But for all the disappointment about Obama[1], four presidents in a row have initiated their own airstrikes in Iraq, two have played a role in a transition of power. George W. Bush accomplished that by invading Iraq with around 150,000 U.S. troops in just its initial March to April 2003 stage, the majority in a multinational collation[2].

Recently Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki stepped down, against his own stated will. The U.S. was involved in airstrikes in Iraq but not against the government; it did publicly claim to be withholding further involvement until new leadership was in power. And publicly supported his now successor, appointed by the Kurdish President, whose people's effectively autonomous government has a long standing relationship with the U.S. 

Many things, including a drop in Iranian support, led to Maliki's privately forced removal from power, and two things are never fully the same, but still. Two presidents have played a role in a transition of power in Iraq, one path didn't involve the death of 3,500 U.S. soldiers and over 100,000 Iraqi civilians while we were there. The other transition involved limited airstrikes, some special forces I assume, influence on allies, foreign relations, etc. The situation is full of death still, but still.

I'm not saying I agree with anything that's happened ever that I haven't already endorsed yet,

I'm just sayin.

Russia Introduces Sanctions on Russia

Russia has recently banned food imports from the US, EU, Norway, Canada, and Australia. All of which have introduced or supported sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Crimea, and invasion-by-proxy of Eastern Ukraine. Or as Jezelbel put it: “Russia…punches itself right in the dick.” As is well known, Russian support for the rebels, who include many Russian citizens that are current or former Russian intelligence officials, in Ukraine led to the downing of a civilian airliner by Russian trained rebels using an antiaircraft system almost certainly provided to them by Russia.

As is well known in economics, a tariff on imports has the same effect on a nation’s economy as taxing its own exports. Similarly, banning imports will do as much harm as banning exports. The United States will be essentially unharmed; Europe will suffer a bit more, though the value of its now banned exports amounts to a rounding error in terms of EU GDP. Some countries closer to Russia, such as Poland and Finland, will suffer proportionally more. But the Russian people will suffer the most. Russian households spend about 31% of their annual expenditures on food, which is high even for a middle income country. Some of the harm, to both Russians and their former suppliers, will be abated by the fact that the supply of food is inelastic in the short run, you can’t ungrow it. Russia will need to find other suppliers, who will divert food to Russia, the banned countries will have to find other buyers, and divert food from Russia, and to an extent it will wash out. But there will be some delay, and in the short run (the ban only lasts a year) Europe is likely to face lower food prices, and Russia higher food prices. Way to show the West. Choice and quality will likely also suffer.

Punching itself in the dick comes at a bad time for Russia[1]: GDP growth has stalled and inflation, which will likely be made worse now, has risen to above 7%. Russia is selling the self-imposed supply shock as a boon to Russian producers, as if Import Substitution worked wonders in Latin America[2] and didn’t end with a painful debt crisis[3]. This is seriously dumb. What’s next? Putin tries to hold his breath like a bratty child until people give in to him?

I would feel bad and stop making fun of how dumb Russian policy is if Putin didn’t have an approval rating above 80%. Well, I do feel bad for the other 20%; I’m very sorry that these people have to live with or near such awful people. It is important to differentiate, for example I would hope that during the G.W. Bush years foreigners who disliked what the US did[4] realized that a slight minority, at least, disliked what the US did too.

July Jobs Report

Pretty decent: 209,000 jobs added, previous months revised up a little bit. Unemployment and participation rates were little changed though. But this is the sixth straight month of 200,000 plus job growth. And the 12 month moving average of monthly job growth is the highest now than at any point since the economy stopped losing jobs.