At the end of January, I posted about the BEA's 2012 fourth quarter GDP growth estimate. It was -0.1% annualized. Most of the decrease was due to cuts in government spending, and reductions in private business inventories (which is typically a sign of negative expectations). Positive contributors to GDP included nonresidential and residential fixed investment.
The thing was, job numbers and stock market performance were suggestive of positive GDP growth. I expected that GDP growth would be revised up. It was; instead of contracting by 0.1%, the economy grew by 0.1%. It is still a bad number and still out of line with the job market performance. On the other hand inflation growth is slowing, and in urban areas has sat at 0% for a couple months now, which can indicate slowing growth.
Basically who knows.
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