Abortion

The state of Texas is currently trying to pass a bill that would limit access to abortions, which, according to the Supreme Court, is at least against the spirit of the Constitution. Anyway, a Democratic State Senator, Wendy Davis, successfully filibustered the bill in a special legislative session. However, the governor just declared a new special session, so its passage is very likely.  

Due to these current events, now seemed like a good time to share a couple graphs I've come across in The Economist. First, a graph of teenage pregnancy, birth, and abortion rates. 

All rates have been decreasing, despite the legality of abortions. Surely the large decrease in teenage pregnancy has contributed, so it would seem that if Texas wants to reduce abortions it should reduce its higher than average teen pregnancy rate. But Texas has abstinence-only education.

The second graph shows the rates of safe and unsafe abortions in the world:

According to the data, Latin America and Africa have the highest rates of abortions, despite having some of the strictest laws limiting the procedure, or making it illegal. At the same time, they have the highest rates of unsafe abortions. The least that can be said is that laws limiting or making abortion illegal are negatively correlated with the rate of abortions. The United States and Canada, where abortion laws are generally more liberal, have lower rates of abortions and nearly no unsafe abortions. And those rates are decreasing.

No one wants there to be more abortions. But it seems that "legal, safe, and rare" is a more successful policy than the alternative, which, according to these graphs, could be described as "illegal, unsafe, and more common".

May Jobs Report

The Economy added 175,000 jobs in May. A very average number. The unemployment rate went up 0.1% to 7.6% due to more people entering the labor force. 

Not much more to say / gonna be lazy on this one. Sorry I'm not sorry.

Pakistan

A pretty newsworthy event has occurred in Pakistan: after winning an election, the new Prime Minister was sworn in. But this is no ordinary political event; it is in fact the first time since independence that an elected civilian government has finished its full term, and been replaced by another elected government. The new Prime Minister, Nawaz Sharif, also set a record by being elected to the post for a third time.

Additionally, there is a new opposition party, led by Imran Khan. His party had never won a seat previously, but now is the third largest in the parliament. The vote, while beset by some violence, was largely free and fair. Turnout increased to 60%. It only takes one time to set a precedent. Here's to a better more democratic future.

Mr. Sharif called for the end to drone strikes in Pakistan after being sworn in. Imran Khan has done so repeatedly as well. A new data visualization tells the story of drone strikes in Pakistan. Less than 2% of those killed have been "high-level" targets, 22% were confirmed civilians, and the remainder are "alleged combatants", whom the authors treat as "other" or those who can't be proven non-combatants.

The drone program got off to a pretty slow, yet horrible start, generally killing more children than anyone else, to say nothing of adult civilians. Over time, civilian deaths continued to increase, but alleged combatant deaths increased faster. Presently, around 76% of those killed are alleged combatants. Better targeting I guess, but it bears repeating: less than 2% have been high profile targets.

Economics of Emigration and the American South

A while ago I posted about the immense benefits of freer migration for migrants, the places they leave, and the places they go. Most research focuses on immigration, and partly as a result there is concern that emigration makes a sending country worse off by reducing its productive capacity. As I outlined in my original post, emigration is a net benefit, and increases growth.

Since then, I came across a paper on emigration and growth in the Southern United States. At the beginning of the 20th century the South was proportionally poorer than the North. Starting in the 1940s, the South grew faster than the North and closed the gap significantly. At the same time, there was large black emigration out of the South.

To get at the causation, Richard Hornbeck and Suresh Naidu of Harvard and Columbia University respectively, look at The Great Mississippi Flood of 1927.