June 5, 2013

Pakistan



A pretty newsworthy event has occurred in Pakistan: after winning an election, the new Prime Minister was sworn in. But this is no ordinary political event; it is in fact the first time since independence that an elected civilian government has finished its full term, and been replaced by another elected government. The new Prime Minister, Nawaz Sharif, also set a record by being elected to the post for a third time.

Additionally, there is a new opposition party, led by Imran Khan. His party had never won a seat previously, but now is the third largest in the parliament. The vote, while beset by some violence, was largely free and fair. Turnout increased to 60%. It only takes one time to set a precedent. Here's to a better more democratic future.

Mr. Sharif called for the end to drone strikes in Pakistan after being sworn in. Imran Khan has done so repeatedly as well. A new data visualization tells the story of drone strikes in Pakistan. Less than 2% of those killed have been "high-level" targets, 22% were confirmed civilians, and the remainder are "alleged combatants", whom the authors treat as "other" or those who can't be proven non-combatants.





The drone program got off to a pretty slow, yet horrible start, generally killing more children than anyone else, to say nothing of adult civilians. Over time, civilian deaths continued to increase, but alleged combatant deaths increased faster. Presently, around 76% of those killed are alleged combatants. Better targeting I guess, but it bears repeating: less than 2% have been high profile targets.




Drones are technology, which is like Pandora's Box. They're here to stay. While they have been effective at killing off Al Qaeda's leadership, they are mostly used as a wing of another country's air force, such as Yemen's, in more conventional warfare. But they are far less deadly, especially to civilians, than say, invading a place to kill enemies. 

As tools for killing high level targets they are probably the least bad means available. And despite what any one person may think, Americans will not tolerate a government that does not kill such people when it has the chance. But the other 98% of the time they kill people comes at greater long term cost for less short term gain. Perhaps that, and increasing political pressure in Pakistan, are behind the downward trend in their use.

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