March 2, 2018

The Trade Balance Doesn't Matter Anymore

In a world of fiat money and floating exchange rates trade deficits / surpluses are not macroeconomically relevant. They have no implications for employment or GDP growth. Bilateral trade balances are especially meaningless. A country with a trade surplus will still have some bilateral trade deficits (at least in practice, I don't quite remember if it is theoretically impossible, or just very unlikely to occur). Tariffs are a regressive tax paid by US consumers for the benefit of a select group of incumbent US capital owners.

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